Friday 21 October 2016

Justin Trudeau- Sunny Ways or Same Old?

When Justin Trudeau and his Canadian Liberal Party defeated Conservative Prime Minister Stephen Harper one whole year ago, I observed from across the Atlantic Ocean that maybe this could be an election that could start a chain of events to break the mould not only in Canada, but also across Canada's southern border, and over here in the UK.

"Sunny Ways," Trudeau proclaimed.  It was all so much an echo of a former Canadian Liberal PM of a bygone age.  And then there was Trudeau's pledge that Canada's 2015 Federal Election would be the last to be conducted under First Past The Post (FPTP).

My optimism was muted by the result being a Liberal majority; I had hoped (as in the case of the UK general election five months earlier) for a hung parliament.

In both the UK and Canada, recent national FPTP elections have seen winning parties secure an overall parliamentary majority, on 40% or less of the popular vote.

Such a set up sees policies voted on by a parliament with a false majority, generally not supported by a majority of citizens, and which can be reversed in a costly way as soon as "the other lot" sweep into power with another false majority.

The United States also uses First Past The Post voting in many elections.  For me, we are talking about the most polarised country in the Western World.  Need I say more.

Now I don't claim to be a major expert on Canadian Politics.  But as a political centrist, I do believe I know enough to know that the ex-Tory PM Stephen Harper was fairly right wing, although not quite as bad as Trump.

For Trudeau now to be apparently suggestive that Canadians aren't that bothered about electoral reform, now they have got rid of Harper, is quite frankly smelling of self-service, as opposed to public service.

What's going to happen the next time the electoral cycle turns, and there is another right-leaning Tory Government in Canada?  Should that happen, then I reckon history could judge Trudeau very unfavourably.  And may I add, he would deserve to be judged in this way.

In the UK, ex-Labour Premier Tony Blair was of course badly tainted by British involvement in Iraq.  But also on the domestic front, Blair had set up the Jenkins Commission on looking into alternative electoral systems.

When it seemed Labour's own selfish partisan interests would be better served by sticking to First Past The Post, such was the electoral dominance of New Labour, the commission's recommendation of a new mixed member proportional system was quietly dropped.  Blair had previously pledged a referendum on any system recommended by Jenkins.

Almost a decade since leaving office, Mr Blair himself has spoken of the worry of Britain heading towards a One Party Conservative State.

Now, I am not suggesting Trudeau's legacy will be some kind of disastrous foreign policy.  But Labour did not lose power in the UK in 2010 because of Iraq.  Blair had been gone for three years!

In any democracy, the inevitability of change does eventually catch up.  Even Sweden, which is often portrayed as a Social Democratic, has had Conservative Prime Ministers.  The most recent was Frederik Reinfeldt from 2006 to 2014.

My belief is that it is fair to say that such governments, as coalitions of two or sometimes more parties, don't stir the same tribal backlashes from voters of a left-leaning perspective.

The same goes for coalition governments headed by a major centre-left party, in the sense that it would be very difficult for Trade Unions to exert excessive influence, in the way the UK Labour Party endured in the 1970s.  Therefore, such a left-leaning government would be unlikely to be perceived as anti-business to people of a right-leaning perspective.

Now, I hope Mr Trudeau reflects on why he entered Politics in the first instance.  He appears to have made the very best of various family connections.  However, does he really want to make a difference?

But even if Trudeau wants to try and quietly bury any findings made by Canada's special committee on electoral reform, I hope some Liberal MPs do take note.  Remember, Canada's oldest party was in third place behind the New Democratic Party (NDP) prior to the 2015 Federal Election.  Who is to say they won't be there again one day.

Electoral Reform has long been on the NDP agenda, and some successful Liberal Candidates would have taken crucial votes off NDP candidates to win their Riding, with some voters fully aware that Trudeau was pledging the next election would be different.

SUNNY WAYS OR SAME OLD?  WELL, THE SUN CERTAINLY DOESN'T SHINE OUT OF JUSTIN'S **** ANYMORE.