If majority governments are maybe now a thing of the past, could the moment come for the Tories to accept electoral reform?

There are now less than two weeks before Britain goes to the polls in a general election.  With opinion polls still showing the Conservatives and Labour as neck and neck, Prime Minister David Cameron's best hope of staying in office could be through another coalition.

For those people who have read my posts previously, one may be familiar with a certain favourite phrase of mine.  Now, I wouldn't quite describe David Cameron as a ridiculous specimen of a man, even though he appears to get confused about which football team he supports!  In fact, I consider Cameron to be a generally decent man.  However, there can be little doubt that Cameron has little to no understanding of what life really means for society's poorest.

Had Cameron's Conservatives secured an overall majority in 2010, I believe there would have been even deeper and more brutal cuts to public services.  Despite the need being there to cut the budget deficit, I suggest that the Conservatives with a drive for those deeper cuts would have made themselves unelectable for another generation.  One day they may just thank Nick Clegg and the Liberal Democrats!

It was John Major who last secured a parliamentary majority for the Tories at a general election in 1992.  I do now wonder when their next majority win will be, even if the now discredited First Past the Post (FPTP) electoral system survives.  With a combination of reduced election turnouts and a smaller combined share of the vote for both main parties, surely it is only a matter of time before alternatives to FPTP are looked at again.

Both the Tories and Labour have historically backed First Past the Post because it has always presented each party with a more realistic prospect of forming a government on their own, without the need for coalition partners.  A more proportional system of course makes that less likely.  But for me, a significant question is whether one party should have the legitimacy to govern on their own with just 35% of the vote?

The combined share of the vote held by both the Conservatives and Labour at the 2010 General Election was in fact just a little over 65%.  In relation to trends from previous recent elections, the 65% was hardly a blip.  Indeed, the combined share of the vote held by both main parties, has over time declined dramatically since the general election of 1951 which produced a combined share of 96.8%!

Although the 2011 Alternative Vote Referendum did see a group of Conservatives support electoral reform, all the main Tory big hitters backed FPTP.  Whilst the majority of the Labour Party also backed the status quo in 2011, I do see more potential from Labour in support for much needed electoral change.  Former Labour Cabinet Minister Alan Johnson is known to be a strong supporter of electoral reform, and recently suggested on the BBC's This Week programme that the time may soon come to look once again at the voting system.

In today's Britain there are significant numbers of people who will rule out voting conservative, ranging from people who have been forced out of their homes because of the bedroom tax to people who have suffered under Margaret Thatcher and not forgotten.  I suggest the Tories embracing electoral reform and being forced to work with other parties in coalition more regularly will go some way to shake off that nasty party image.

But how long will it take them to smell the coffee?  Or will they now go on dreaming about a majority government that may never materialise anyway?

A personal perspective on British electoral reform

I have felt very privileged over the past few months.  I have had more visits from local Labour Party activists than I can remember from any group of politicians over my entire lifetime.  The reason is I live in a safe Labour council ward, but in a swing parliamentary seat between Labour and the Conservatives as this year's General Election draws ever nearer.

A Boundary Commission change before the 2010 election saw me become a constituent of the marginal Warrington South constituency, as opposed to the safe Labour seat that is Warrington North.  After 18 years of the seat being held by Labour, Conservative David Mowatt defeated Nick Bent, his Labour counterpart.

As those same two men go head to head again five years later, it seems that Labour are really going to town to get their vote out in an attempt to win the seat back.  Whilst the attention I have received has been flattering, it does nothing to change my opposition to the First Past the Post electoral system.

Nobody's vote should be wasted, which is effectively what mine would be in the event of any future boundary change that would put me back in Warrington North!  Nationally, there are effectively about 180 seats which have already been called for the Conservatives, about 150 which have been called for Labour, and a handful of other seats which have been called for smaller parties.  That is clearly over half of all seats, and I really feel for the people who live in such constituencies, whose voices won't be heard.

I do have a soft preference in terms of who I would prefer to form the next government.  However, that soft preference does not outweigh my desire to see the First Past the Post electoral system and it's merits seriously dented.  This desire may see me tactically vote, and that is exactly what I have been telling the Labour activists who have had the honour of knocking on my door.  A second consecutive hung parliament will go someway to undermine the result of the 2011 (AV) Alternative Vote Referendum.

I hope that one day the majority of mainstream politicians will accept the country belongs to the people, not them and their personal interests.  To serve the people requires people to feel engaged.  First Past the Post may have had it's moments of delivering strong and decisive government.  But it's origins go back to a by-gone era when Britain was a nation of just two parties.

Today, too many Brits feel disenfranchised with politics.  I personally don't have strong leanings to the left or the right.  In fact, it is the cause of a fairer voting system which is right up there with my strongest political views.

Critics of a more proportional voting system will point to what they see as the weakness of almost permanent coalition.  But First Past the Post still has a coalition element.  The Labour Party and the Conservative Party are both broad churches anyway.  Take aside the fact that former Labour Premier Tony Blair took the UK to war in Iraq, in a move which was opposed by prominent Conservative Ken Clarke, both men are otherwise probably closer ideologically on many issues than they are to many in their own respective parties.

Some opponents of more proportional systems will be quick to highlight how proportional systems will sometimes enable smaller parties to gain seats in Government, such as the right-wing Independent Greeks in the recent Greek election on just 4.8% of the vote.  But you can also spin percentages another way, in that when Mrs Thatcher and Mr Blair both won 100 seat plus majorities, they did not even have 50% of the vote, let alone a percentage of the popular vote which was reflective of the number of seats their respective governments held.

No doubt some people will be reading this and think the 2011 AV Referendum should have been the final word on this matter, at least for many years.  If the 2015 election was to be successful in terms of a high voter turnout and a strong majority for one party, then I may well have to keep quiet for a while on this issue.  At this point, I consider that prospect to be highly unlikely.

Blair is a liability to the pro-EU cause!

Former Labour Premier Tony Blair has joined Britain's General Election party by making disapproving noises on Tory plans for a 2017 In/Out referendum on the EU.  Blair believes that such a referendum would provide an unwelcome distraction from the vital day to day government issues such as the NHS and Law and Order.

However, such sentiments are at odds with growing feelings amongst ordinary Brits who increasingly want to have a say on the issue.  Blair's stance is also at odds with the pro-European Green Party, who like the Conservatives, support having an In/Out referendum.  On this issue, I am in agreement completely with the Greens.  That is Yes to the Referendum, and Yes to voting to remain in the EU.

In my post on 4 April 2015, I suggested that by resisting an In/Out referendum, Ed Miliband (the current Labour leader) may himself face party splits should Labour end up in either a coalition government or as a government with a tiny majority.  I am not saying that Miliband will necessarilly be forced into a referendum u-turn within weeks of forming a government.  However, it could be a matter of time before a Labour government also has to accept the need for such a referendum.

As for Mr Blair, there is no doubt that he will continue to divide opinion due to Britain's involvement in overseas wars without a UN mandate.  His intervention this week has confirmed something significant for whenever Britain does hold a referendum to solve the issue of Europe.  I believe that any cross-party campaign to argue for the UK to remain an EU Member must detach itself completely from this ridiculous specimen of a man!

Miliband still does not get Europe!

As the British General Election Campaign got underway, Labour Party Leader Ed Miliband went on the attack over pledges by the Conservatives to hold an in/out Referendum on Britain's EU membership.  Milliband has suggested the referendum would be a "clear and present danger" to jobs and business.

Although I am a believer myself that there are more reasons for Britain to stay in the EU than leave, it is becoming increasingly clear to me that Miliband is burying his head in the sand over the inevitability of the need for Britain to solve this issue once and for all.

Europe is not a left versus right issue.  As someone who spends a lot time split between Liverpool and Warrington amongst mainly Labour voters, it is perfectly clear to me that there is some desire amongst ordinary working people to at least have a say on the issue.

Today, I was at Warrington's Parr Hall, as comedian and Labour supporter Eddie Izzard expressed pro-EU sentiments at a Labour Election Rally.  This was before Mr Miliband came to the stage to pretty much deliver his usual rhetoric on the key election issues.

The last thirty years may well have seen Labour become more Pro-European than the Tories.  However, it is important to remember that this period has not seen a Labour Government either in coalition or in office with a wafer-thin majority.

Unless the opinion polls drastically change, Mr Miliband could well be heading to Downing Street with a tiny majority.  Such a scenario would be a total contrast to the days of Tony Blair's comfortable 100 seat plus majorities.  Putting it very simply, Labour Eurosceptic MPs would have that little bit of power to make waves!