Tuesday 20 October 2015

Cameron has claimed First Past The Post to be one of Britain's most successful exports! Well, Canada's new PM-elect has suggested otherwise!

Canada's 42nd Federal Election has produced a majority Liberal Government.  The new Canadian Prime Minister will be Justin Trudeau, son of former Prime Minister Pierre Elliott Trudeau.  I cautiously welcome this news, and offer my sincere congratulations to Canada's PM-elect.

Mr Trudeau's Liberal platform has made pledges such as tax changes and legalising marijuana.  He has also promised to introduce legislation for Canada to abandon the First Past The Post (FPTP) electoral system within 18 months.

Electoral Reform campaigners in Canada will now have hope that the 42nd Federal Election will prove to be Canada's last unfair election, under FPTP.  But will the Liberals' success under the current system change all that?

Of Canada's two main centre-left parties, the New Democrats (NDP) have long been supporters of Proportional Representation.  The Liberal Party have historically done well under FPTP, and the flirtation with Electoral Reform may well have been motivated by a fear of electoral oblivion, following a disastrous election four years ago which placed Canada's oldest party into 3rd place.

Over here in the UK, we had a referendum in 2011 on a possible change away from FPTP to the Alternative Vote (AV) system.  With AV being a majoritarian voting system, like FPTP, some British electoral reformers felt it was so easy for supporters of FPTP to win a referendum which preserved the status quo.

In that referendum campaign, Britain's Conservative PM David Cameron spoke of Britain's electoral system being a successful export to the other countries around the world who use FPTP.  But closer examination of that argument shows that this use of FPTP is mainly by developing countries that were once British colonies, in addition to Canada and the US.

Even if some in Mr Trudeau's inner circle try to steer a path towards maintaining the status quo, I suggest there may be some anger if the Canadian Liberal Party's Electoral Reform pledge is not honoured. 

Some voters will have backed the Liberals over the NDP in the belief that the more youthful Mr Trudeau was a better option than the NDP's Tom Mulcair in ousting Conservative Premier Stephen Harper, and also possibly because they lived in a constituency (riding) where the Liberal candidate offered the better chance of strategically defeating the Tory candidate.

With Electoral Reform in Canada now looking a more realistic prospect than it perhaps was in the UK post-2010 general election, the argument used by Cameron in 2011 could be about to go up in smoke! 

Should Canada now implement a fairer voting system, the only remaining major industrialised nations still to use FPTP would be Britain and the US!  I am hopeful some interesting times now lie ahead.