Wednesday 10 December 2014

Could Britain be heading for Grand Coalition in 2015?

I was watching some debate on a news channel a few weeks ago.  I recall one member of the panel comment along the lines that forecasting the result of Britain's next General Election in 2015 is like opening a box, with no idea of how the contents inside will look.

The Labour Movement's election of Ed Milliband as leader has been considered unwise in many quarters.  With the previous Labour government presiding over unwise borrowing, the Conservative led coalition government of David Cameron was also handed the opportunity to demonstrate financial prudence on a plate.

However, the real cause of Britain's biggest economic crisis since World War II (and indeed a world crisis) was certainly not the former Prime Minister Gordon Brown and his Labour government.  Mr Brown and his government were certainly not responsible for the mismanagement of Lehman Brothers or Royal Bank of Scotland, not to mention the many other Banks worldwide which went bust.

Since taking office, the introduction of single sex marriage is one achievement David Cameron should rightly be proud of.  It is also a change which would have probably been considered most unlikely under a Tory government only a few years previously.  However, this achievement does not disguise the general perception that the make up of Team Cameron simply does not reflect a typical cross section of the British public.

A recent report suggested that four million Britons are not eating properly.  With food banks being used more, a compassionate approach to Social Security is required.  I am not saying for one minute that the Country can afford a blank cheque to authorise every single benefit claim.  But when I saw Work and Pensions Secretary Iain Duncan Smith/IDS punch the air in delight as Cameron announced a two year freeze in benefits at the Conservative Party Conference in October, well let's just say it confirmed something I have known for a while.

I suspect that footage of IDS (whom I consider to be a ridiculous specimen of a man) punching the air, will be featured in Party Election Broadcasts as non-conservative forces do their very best to highlight the common slogan that the Tories are the Nasty Party.  I personally believe these pictures confirm that if the Tories do win, once again a majority will be elusive.

With both large parties unlikely to secure a majority, and with the Liberal Democrats likely to make significant losses, the inevitable question concerns what kind of coalition will emerge this time?  The Northern Irish Unionists will probably be collectively in a stronger position, if both the Democratic Unionists and Ulster Unionists do agree on a single unionist candidate for each Northern Irish constituency.  Meanwhile in Scotland, the SNP is riding on a high with Scottish Labour seemingly in complete disarray!

What about Grand Coalition?  This a term used to describe a coalition government between two parties with opposing ideologies, who are the two largest parties in a democratic system.  The last time there was such a coalition in Britain was during World War II.  Such coalition arrangements have though been more common recently in other European countries such as Austria, where there has been a motive to keep the far-right out of power.  In fact two of the three governments formed by current German Chancellor Angela Merkel have been grand coalitions.

Britain may well so far have avoided a triple dip recession.  The economic uncertainty will though continue after the general election.  Ongoing difficulties in the Euro Zone, along with the increased foodbank use in the UK do confirm this.

Britain's very relationship with Europe has now been a divisive issue in the Conservative Party since the closing stages of the Thatcher Government.  That is the principal reason why Mr Cameron is promising that a Conservative majority government will hold a referendum on Britain's EU membership.

Although the issue of Europe has not been as divisive an issue within the Labour Party during the same period, it would be completely naive to suggest that a Labour government would have no problems on this isssue.  A few Labour MPs made disapproving noises earlier this year.  That was when Ed Milliband suggested that it would be most unlikely for Labour to match the Tories' referendum pledge.

Both the Tories and Labour will of course be aiming to secure a majority victory.  However, with some recent polling suggesting that both parties are at 30% or less of the electoral vote, it would be a surprise if private conversations have not been held within each party concerning possible coalition partners.

If an election result is indeed delivered with both main parties firstly very close in terms of share of the vote, and secondly on a low combined share of the vote, then I suggest a grand coalition is certainly not impossible.  An election result like this would send a clear message that there is no clear mandate from the British people for either main party to address the UK's current problems.

And then there is the potential that an EU referendum could finally solve the thorny issue of Europe, which has potential to cause problems for both Labour and Conservative governments alike, unless the issue is once again put into the hands of the British people to resolve once and for all.  The benefit of Grand Coalition for Labour is obvious, in the sense that agreeing to the in/out referendum enables Labour to solve a potentially big problem for themselves, without the need to publically admit their European splits are possibly comparable with those of the Tories to begin with.