As stated by the Argentine constitution, Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner's tenure as Argentine President will be over in a little over a year. Many people in my home country of the United Kingdom will remember Kirchner as a President who stoked up Falklands/Malvinas tensions.
The past week or so has seen two prominant Argentines maķe their own noises on the British Overseas Territory, which is situated approximately 300 miles from the Argentine coast. Former Argentine Vice President and Presidential hopeful Julio Cobos made a trip to the disputed territory, having gone on record stating that the Malvinas is a foreign policy challenge facing any Argentine President. Whereas Alicia Castro (Argentina's current ambassador to the UK) made claims that the Falklanders would be better off under Argentine sovereignty.
The noises which have been made by Castro are consistent to other statements she has made during her time as Ambassador to the UK. So nothing new there. Ultimately Castro's own interest will remain to strike a balance between supporting the Argentine sovereignty claim over the islands, and make a statement of respect towards the inhabitants of the islands. After all, the one initial certainty of the Casa Rosada's next incumbent will of course be the continued claim over Las Malvinas.
What may change though is the tone of that claim, as hinted by the recent actions of Mr Cobos. It is true that for Cobos we are talking about a trip that was made for personal reasons. Indeed, it is particularly unknown on how far Cobos' Presidential ambitions will bear fruit. But it is also the case that an Argentine journalist recently suggested that all Presidential hopefuls should visit those two pieces of land loved by Argentina, but missed.
It is on the point of referring to the Falklands/Malvinas as two pieces of land that I believe a future Argentine administration can change approach, whilst also retaining integrity. There are two main islands- West Falkland/Gran Malvina and East Falkland. The British case for maintaining sovereignty is based on the Falklanders' right to self-determination. The vast majority of Falklanders reside in East Falkland. Could Argentina ever change it's constitutional claim to claim Sovereignty of the largely uninhabited Western side only?
If Argentina claimed Gran Malvina and the surrounding islands to lead to a land split, they would need to sell the ideas to the British Falklanders in order to smooth over any future negotiation with the UK Government. But here is the point- even if that community want to remain British and retain a British Overseas Territory status over East Falkland, a transfer of sovereignty over West Falkland/Gran Malvina can offer benefits to that community.
Opening West Falkland/Gran Malvina up to immigration from Argentina offers the British Falklanders the launchpad to not only trade with a neighbouring Argentine territory, but could also open up access to better trading links with mainland Argentina as well as other Latin American markets.
Should a future Argentine administration turn it's back on the harrassment Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner subjected the Falklanders, but instead use positive and warm language to make the case for a land split, then one day the Falklanders may smell the coffee and accept the benefits of a land split go way beyond just a political settlement.
I know that some sceptics in the UK will be quick to question whether Argentina could ever be satisfied with just half of what it wants. It is important to recognise though that Argentine critics of Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner's Malvinas policy, argue for a different approach- an approach whereby Argentina instead offers benefits to the Falklanders in terms of trade, travel links, free healthcare, and education.
Argentina gaining sovereignty over the west of the archipelago not only saves face in terms of the long standing claim on Las Malvinas, it also puts them in a stronger position to democratically and peacefully persuade the British Falklanders that one day their future could indeed lie with Argentina. But even if the Falklanders choose to reject Argentine sovereignty over the east in the ultra long-term, a friendly English speaking territory on Argentina's doorstep could still be very appealing indeed to the nation as described by Ambassador Castro as Latin America's most Anglophile nation.
The past week or so has seen two prominant Argentines maķe their own noises on the British Overseas Territory, which is situated approximately 300 miles from the Argentine coast. Former Argentine Vice President and Presidential hopeful Julio Cobos made a trip to the disputed territory, having gone on record stating that the Malvinas is a foreign policy challenge facing any Argentine President. Whereas Alicia Castro (Argentina's current ambassador to the UK) made claims that the Falklanders would be better off under Argentine sovereignty.
The noises which have been made by Castro are consistent to other statements she has made during her time as Ambassador to the UK. So nothing new there. Ultimately Castro's own interest will remain to strike a balance between supporting the Argentine sovereignty claim over the islands, and make a statement of respect towards the inhabitants of the islands. After all, the one initial certainty of the Casa Rosada's next incumbent will of course be the continued claim over Las Malvinas.
What may change though is the tone of that claim, as hinted by the recent actions of Mr Cobos. It is true that for Cobos we are talking about a trip that was made for personal reasons. Indeed, it is particularly unknown on how far Cobos' Presidential ambitions will bear fruit. But it is also the case that an Argentine journalist recently suggested that all Presidential hopefuls should visit those two pieces of land loved by Argentina, but missed.
It is on the point of referring to the Falklands/Malvinas as two pieces of land that I believe a future Argentine administration can change approach, whilst also retaining integrity. There are two main islands- West Falkland/Gran Malvina and East Falkland. The British case for maintaining sovereignty is based on the Falklanders' right to self-determination. The vast majority of Falklanders reside in East Falkland. Could Argentina ever change it's constitutional claim to claim Sovereignty of the largely uninhabited Western side only?
If Argentina claimed Gran Malvina and the surrounding islands to lead to a land split, they would need to sell the ideas to the British Falklanders in order to smooth over any future negotiation with the UK Government. But here is the point- even if that community want to remain British and retain a British Overseas Territory status over East Falkland, a transfer of sovereignty over West Falkland/Gran Malvina can offer benefits to that community.
Opening West Falkland/Gran Malvina up to immigration from Argentina offers the British Falklanders the launchpad to not only trade with a neighbouring Argentine territory, but could also open up access to better trading links with mainland Argentina as well as other Latin American markets.
Should a future Argentine administration turn it's back on the harrassment Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner subjected the Falklanders, but instead use positive and warm language to make the case for a land split, then one day the Falklanders may smell the coffee and accept the benefits of a land split go way beyond just a political settlement.
I know that some sceptics in the UK will be quick to question whether Argentina could ever be satisfied with just half of what it wants. It is important to recognise though that Argentine critics of Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner's Malvinas policy, argue for a different approach- an approach whereby Argentina instead offers benefits to the Falklanders in terms of trade, travel links, free healthcare, and education.
Argentina gaining sovereignty over the west of the archipelago not only saves face in terms of the long standing claim on Las Malvinas, it also puts them in a stronger position to democratically and peacefully persuade the British Falklanders that one day their future could indeed lie with Argentina. But even if the Falklanders choose to reject Argentine sovereignty over the east in the ultra long-term, a friendly English speaking territory on Argentina's doorstep could still be very appealing indeed to the nation as described by Ambassador Castro as Latin America's most Anglophile nation.
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